The overall objective of this assignment is to provide an updated assessment of climate changes in BiH and its vulnerability to climate change with modeling efforts significantly strengthened compared to the Initial National Communication (INC), and capacity enhanced in scenario development and climate modeling through the use of new software, training, and institutional partnerships. Project-supported research and analysis for the SNC will be strengthened in five priority areas (vulnerable ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, forestry, and human health) and will introduce quantitative assessments for these areas to the greatest extent possible. Economic analysis of potential adaptation measures in these areas will be prepared, and prioritized recommendations will be provided both in the chapter on Vulnerability and Adaptation in the SNC and to government officials.
Scope of work:
The incumbent should work in consultation with and under the guidance and supervision of a Project Manager (PM) and a Team Leader Vulnerability and Adaptation. Specifically, his\her responsibilities are but not limited to the following:
- Select the most appropriate software for regional models of climate change given data availability in BiH and modeling capacity.
- Train identified BiH experts in the use of the software.
- Develop at least 2 long-term regional climate scenarios appropriate for BiH based on IPPC SRES scenarios.
- Run the scenarios with at least two different global circulation models.
- Compare model runs with comparable findings in other countries in the Southeastern European region and note any discrepancies.
- Contribute to the preparation of vulnerability and adaptation report.
- Produce the report of the results of relevant activities.
Deliverables and timelines The consultant is responsible for the following deliverables:
Deliverable Schedule
31 Jul 2011: The most appropriate software selected
30 Nov 2011: Two long-term regional climate scenarios developed
31 Mar 2012: Scenarios run with at least two different global circulation models
30 Apr 2012: Local experts trained in use of selected software
|